On Jul 24, 8:56*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 24, 6:32*pm, Dawlish wrote:





On Jul 24, 12:01*pm, Dawlish wrote:

On Jul 24, 8:11*am, Dawlish wrote:

On Jul 18, 9:25*pm, Dawlish wrote:

Consistency from the ECM and enough agreement from the gfs and other
models: that's enough for me; summer's coming back!

**At T240, on Wednesday, 28th July, much of the country will be
experiencing high pressure and with it; dry, warm and settled
conditions. The only exception to this may be the NW of Scotalnd,
where there may be an Atlantic influence.**

Short and sweet, enjoy the probable return of summer after this week's
coming unsettled weather.

High pressure looks the way, with the Azores high ridging towards us
midweek and the NW of Scotland looking more unsettled, but it's
presently not being shown as an uncluttered area of subsidence for
many areas of the UK. There's little troughs within the high pressure
on the present charts waiting to complicate things and produce uplift
and showers. Have to wait until outcome (as always, of course) to see
how accurate this one will be, though I think we'll see an
intensification of the ridge and less disturbances towards Wednesday
28th.

The dryness may well extend further and the country looks like it will
be in a phase of north-westerlies, with an anticyclone sat in the
Atlantic at 10 days. I wouldn't take much more persuading to forecast
that later today. The real summer warmth has been pushed east, with
Moscow experiencing a heatwave. Around 100F for much of the week.

http://www.google.co.uk/search?sourc...-GB&ie=UTF-8&r...

gfs 06z continues with the NW theme at T240.

It's worth noting that activity in Eyjafjallajökull is currently very
low and no eruption of Katla has been triggered. If either were
spewing ash, as Eyjafjallajökull was, back in April, the (likely)
coming synoptic conditions would probably have caused serious
disruption to UK and European air travel at the height of the holiday
season. It would have been utter chaos. I wonder if those flying out,
or back, this week realise that?- Hide quoted text -

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12z gfs has us plagued by low pressure through next weekend. T240
still has a north-westerly.- Hide quoted text -

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12z ECM has a rotten cold plunge. I certainly don't fancy that at the
start of August!

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Recm2402.gif- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

The charts are not great at all into August. The summer is on a knife-
edge, for me.