On Aug 4, 8:10*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Jul 25, 8:35*pm, Dawlish wrote:





The models have been suggesting this for 36 hours, but this evening
there is cross-model agreement and consistency, from the two major
models.

**At T240, on Wed 4th August, high pressure will have established
itself in the near Atlantic, leading to a winds between west and north
for the majority of the UK. Temperatures will be around average for
the time of year, for the UK as a whole, with cooler than average
nights and some warmth in any sunshine. Showery, cloudier weather will
keep the NW and eastern coastal areas cooler and perhaps wetter -
especially in the NW, where an Atlantic influence will be felt. Much
of the rest of the country will be experiencing below average
precipitation. The best of the weather will be in the south of the UK
and especially the SW which will be experiencing a period of dry and
sunny weather.**

Book your last minute holidays now folks. SW looks the UK best at the
start of August, for me. NW Europe looks distinctly cool, while
Western Russia looks record-breakingly warm for an extended period. I
think we'll be hearing about much increased heat-related deaths there
very shortly. I can't believe the response of the authorities will be
as good as the UK's would be. Temperature records will be set in
Western Russia and Moscow's record ever temp may well be beaten this
week and there looks to be little respite in the heat over the next 10
days.

Well, the SW isn't quite as good as I thought it would be and we've
finally had rain in the SE today, but the high pressure in the near
Atlantic was well shown by the models 10 days ago and you could have
trusted the output then. The anticyclone is controlling our weather,
directing troughs around it's NE limb and across the UK. The UK has a
NW flow across the whole country this evening .

Not 100% perfect and a little disappointing in the SW, but we're doing
relatively well compared to many other areas with sunshine today,
after some early rain, so a good forecast overall from 10 days out.

The more extended view of Western Russia, from 10 days out, has
certainly proven correct!- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Just on that last point: there's no let up in the Moscow heat.
Temperatures of 100F possible at the end of this week. Probably not
the best of places to holiday this week:

http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/...JCXlAD9HCTGFO1