On 25 Aug, 09:18, Dawlish wrote:
On Aug 25, 8:16*am, Teignmouth wrote:

The problem is if Dawlish only forecasts when all the models agree at
T240 (which is very rarely), what happens all the other times?

I’m off to Manchester on 4th September to watch Muse play in an open
air arena at Lanchashire Country Cricket Ground, I need to know
whether I need to purchase a full on Sou’wester, a pac-a-mac, shorts &
Tshirt or sun cream?

It’s no good saying, I can’t provide you with a forecast today because
the models don’t agree.

I can also look at the models and make a judgement of my own, even if
the models don’t agree I would have a go at forecasting and, I’m
dismissing the current model output and going for cool (15-17c) with a
NW breeze & showers.

What do you use as your forecast criteria?

Everything around me - the sun, the feel of the day the signs in the
sky and gut feeling. Usually right for a day or two, which is about
all the "scientific" forecasters can manage, and even then they're
just as likely to be wrong, and it doesn't cost me anything. Same
with alleged man-made climate change - just looking around, and
thinking back says (glaringly) that it aint so. All bollox, all a
flash in the pan like all the other self-generated scares in recent
history. Gives some people a living, I suppose.

CK