On Sep 21, 6:59*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:
"Dawlish" wrote in message

...

I don't see a wet September. I have 75% confidence that high pressure
will be dominating our weather towards the end of the month.

**at T240, on Wednesday 29th September, most of the UK will be under
anticyclonic conditions, leading to quiet, dry and settled weather for
most**

A nice end to September. Dry days, some frost at night further north
and not a great deal of rain for most between now and then. No storms,
the jet to our NW, subsiding air over the UK and little evidence of
the influence of these extra-tropical depressions. The exception may
well be the far NW. That's my take on the weather at 10 days!

Are you still sure about this Paul? I'm still going for a warm and wet
Autumn BTW.
You made this prediction at the worst possible time, before extratropical
transistion of Igor where models were indicating all sorts of subtle
dynamical possibilities despite the agreement you happened to find around
this time from succesive runs. Ex Igor warm air advection west of Greenland
will undoubtedly throw up an anticyclone downstream near UK, but as always
with these systems there is a high probability of them injecting energy into
the jet which will make the high topple and/or receed east. the latter now
looks like taking place. An interesting development is that ex Igor rotates
west of Greenland and injects cold air south towards Newfoundland by
strengthening northerly flow this also accentuating the jet. I would not be
at all surprised to see a stormy end to September (at least up north).

Will
--

Will, it seems to me looking at the gfs grib forecast charts, that
Igor continues heading north up the Davis Strait and dies a death. The
strong northerlies you talk about are from a depression which comes
bombing out from Labrador on Saturday, giving strong northwesterlies
on Sunday to the east of Newfoundland. Admittedly, this depression
could well have been influenced by a momentum and moisture injection
from Igor. Igor has been a biggy and is still classed as a hurricane
cat 1 for the moment. Fax charts are showing it as frontal now.

http://www.westwind.ch/?page=ukmb

Len Wood
Wembury