"Dawlish" wrote in message
...
It certainly now looks like the first week in October will be an
unsettled and potentially a stormy affair. 10 days from now we may
well be in a period of windy and wet weather for almost the whole of
the UK. My own 10-day forecast for Wednesday looks as if it will be
blown away by the start of this, I think the high pressure will now be
pushed away eastwards, allowing in quite a zonal train, with a marked
change in the weather for the UK. It really is looking very unsettled.


Indeed.

Here is what I said on 21st September:

Dawlish wrote:
**at T240, on Wednesday 29th September, most of the UK will be under
anticyclonic conditions, leading to quiet, dry and settled weather for
most**

A nice end to September. Dry days, some frost at night further north
and not a great deal of rain for most between now and then. No storms,
the jet to our NW, subsiding air over the UK and little evidence of
the influence of these extra-tropical depressions. The exception may
well be the far NW. That's my take on the weather at 10 days!


Are you still sure about this Paul? I'm still going for a warm and wet
Autumn BTW.
You made this prediction at the worst possible time, before extratropical
transistion of Igor where models were indicating all sorts of subtle
dynamical possibilities despite the agreement you happened to find around
this time from succesive runs. Ex Igor warm air advection west of Greenland
will undoubtedly throw up an anticyclone downstream near UK, but as always
with these systems there is a high probability of them injecting energy into
the jet which will make the high topple and/or receed east. the latter now
looks like taking place. An interesting development is that ex Igor rotates
west of Greenland and injects cold air south towards Newfoundland by
strengthening northerly flow this also accentuating the jet. I would not be
at all surprised to see a stormy end to September (at least up north).

Will
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So I am not in the least surprised about what will be a very interesting
first couple of weeks in October as Atlantic depressions get underway. I
expected it ..... :-))

Will
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