On 03/10/2010 21:55, Keith (Southend)G wrote:
Although Joe *******i is not putting out a full European winter
forecast until the 14th October 2010, he seems to be hinting of
another cool winter for Europe, but as yet not sure where the coldest
areas will be.

http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...er=accuweather

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home& Abroad"
"... but as yet not sure where the coldest
areas will be".


Without the aid of any models or statistics, I will confidently forecast
that somewhere in Europe will have a cool winter! Europe is a large
place and there are many synoptic situations which give cold conditions
in some areas and warm ones elsewhere. Past form by this type of
forecaster suggests that if much of Europe had near average temperatures
but one corner was cold, he would claim a win.

Prizes are only awarded for coming up with the pattern in advance,
indicating which areas will be cold or warm and the reasons why (eg
distribution of high / low pressure anomalies). At least the two
organisations I monitor (the Met Office and Netweather,tv) do this, so
you can see whether they are right or wrong and where the errors have
been made. The Met Office might have "hidden" their forecast, but it is
still there in the public domain if you know where to look and have some
knowledge to interpret it. Netweather are up front with theirs, and as
they issue a commercial version their balance sheet as well as their
reputation is on the line.

--
- Yokel -

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