On Nov 3, 12:53*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Nov 2, 9:20*pm, John Hall wrote:
In article ,
*Graham P Davis writes:
On Tuesday 02 November 2010 17:41, Teignmouth scribbled:
Here's the link for SW England, cos that's where I live.
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...;loc=SWEngland
And here's the full winter F/C:
http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nter-forecast;...
I see that, unlike many commercial outfits who attempt to make seasonal
forecasts, they describe their methodology. It looks to me - admittedly
no expert - that though their forecast may well be wrong it deserves to
be taken seriously.
--
John Hall
* * * * * * * *"I look upon it, that he who does not mind his belly,
* * * * * * * * will hardly mind anything else."
* * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * * *Dr Samuel Johnson (1709-84)
It's another forecast; no more. They appear to be going down the road
of saying that La Nina will affect our winter, but they don't refer to
any research. What research there is not conclusive about the link
from the Equatorial Pacific to us in the UK in a La Nina winter (or an
El Nino, or transition winter either!). I think they are looking at
the main difference in conditions between this winter and last and
guessing that the kind of winter we will have will be different to
last year; hence the colder and drier forecast. *No-one* including
netweather has any decent track record in seasonal forecasting, so why
should we really take any of them seriously? When someone gets it
right around 75% of the time over about a dozen seasons, I'll begin to
start taking an interest in what they are doing. No-one appears to
have managed to do that yet.
I'm incredibly frustrated by the lack of progress in seasonal
forecasting over the last 20 years. Far more research is needed and we
are nowhere near being able to forecast this winter's weather with any
confidence. The demand for people to be able to get it right is great,
but no-one can meet the demand. That creates a market for the
commercials. The commercials also have a vested interest in drumming
up business and if they mention cold, it will wed most of their
participants to their site, as they will be hoping they've got it
right. If they say "cold" they'll also get far more publicity than if
they say "mild". It will also attact new coldies because they will
think that someone has found the holy grail of forecasting a cold
winter. They haven't. Really; they haven't.
Frustrating; pretty hopeless; not what the coldies will want to hear,
but there you go.
Teleconnections are far from reliable when it comes to Europe but
there is a bias towards strong La Niņa events/episodes producing
normal or milder-than-normal winters in the UK - about 70 per cent of
the time. But that's without taking any of the several other
considerations into account, and I won't go into that here given that
it's part of the suite of services we provide commercially.
FWIW, though, the Netweather winter forecast is at least a reasonable
and reasoned stab, and I don't think it is unfair that they note
differences from last winter, because a) last winter was so
exceptional and b) there are so many rent-a-mouths shouting in the
press about how it is going to be as cold and snowy a winter as last
year.
I'm not sure who or what you mean by "the commercials". If you mean
certain websites then they can certainly drive traffic by continually
forecasting severe weather. However, eventually anybody with any sense
(and more importantly with any money to spend) will spot regular cries
of "wolf", so they are commiting commercial suicide. Anyone dropping
by for a "hopecast" is not going to be a commerecial client -- so as
many "participants" as they can attract can be "wedded" to their
website but it makes no business sense except perhaps to get a brand
name trumpeted around the web or in lazy newspapers. Or perhaps I
misunderstand what you mean by "the commercials".
Which brings me to my final point - there are a lot more seasonal
forecasts in the market than are made freely available, and it is
wrong to say that there has been no progress in the last 20 years.
Nobody is suggesting a *high* degree of accuracy or usefulness in
these forecasts but there is *some* usefulness or the eminently
sensible and thrifty clients who buy them would not do so. I am
fortunate enough to be privy to one that proved startlingly good last
winter and during the past summer when there was a strong enough
signal. We have no right to assume, however, that accurate seasonal
forecasting will ever be tenable, ot at least not soon.
Stephen.