On Nov 9, 7:18*am, Dawlish wrote:


"Better safe than sorry" is the forecasting maxim these days.

No it isn't, and frankly, if you'll forgive me, that's a pretty unfair
swipe at professional meteorologists. We are as unhappy with an over-
forecast as an under-forecast, and verification is unforgiving of any
pessimistic or optimistic bias.

I would agree that there might be a problem with the presentation of
severe weather warnings, but the Met Office are obliged to warn of
severe weather within the preset regions even if only one or two
locations therein are expected to suffer (correct me if I'm wrong, Met
Office people). I sense that some criticism emanates from preceived
inaccuracy simply because not everywhere within the warning area
experiences the forecast conditions ("well, we didn't get a heavy snow
shower at our house").

Stephen.