On Nov 18, 5:18*pm, Teignmouth wrote:
On Nov 18, 5:11*pm, "Jack )"

wrote:
So how is La Nina at the moment?

Jack

Many thanks Steve.

Jack, the last 3 months Aug/Sep/Oct is currently running at -1.3, a
moderate La Nina event, but it could always weaken over the coming
winterhttp://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Some models have it bottoming out about now while others strengthen it
a little further through to early 2011 (e.g. NASA and Scripps) before
starting weaken before the end of winter, and it's already "moderate
to strong".

Here's a report from from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology:

"Moderate to strong La Niña conditions remain in place across the
tropical Pacific. Long-range models surveyed by the Bureau suggest
that this La Niña event will persist into at least early 2011.

All ENSO indicators continue to exceed La Niña thresholds. The
tropical Pacific Ocean remains significantly cooler than average for
this time of year, with NINO indices recording their lowest October
values since the La Niña event of 1988. Below the Pacific Ocean
surface, temperatures are up to 4°C cooler than normal. The SOI
remains very high, equalling its record October monthly value of +18.
Trade winds remain stronger than average across the central and
western equatorial Pacific and cloudiness near the date-line continues
to be suppressed."

Here's a suite of forecasts:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO...SST_table.html

And here are three analogues:

http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO...o/figure2.html


Stephen.