In message , Victor West
writes

"Paul Bartlett" wrote in message
...

By the way you will have noticed that this welcome fall I have not linked
to a severe/cold winter.
--

Yet. ;-) :-)
Thanks for the mail Victor.
My winter forecasts are based on ewp and CETs to a large extent. I used
cycles, periodicies and similarities.
With global warming these are not a reliable data base - hence no
forecast.
Global warming should lead to the so called 'Bartlett' high dominating
from the Azores to the Alps due to the general rise in contour heights.
But if that is true then surely pressure may also rise over Greenland
and (more importantly) Scandinavia.
I don't follow the dynamics that indicate otherwise.
Maybe the only way forward is to rely on numerical prediction - but
after T+144 they aren't very good. Let alone for a season. (See GFS).

As for the usual plethora of forecasts for a cold winter I refer you
back to 1960 when it all began, so it is something we just have to put
up with. Every year!

My mild winter forecasts have been good guidance since I was a founder
member of this newsgroup many years ago.

Mid November cold spells were common in the early 1970's and were all
followed by mild winters - but having said that we got more snow this
month (18th) than we had the whole of last winter - meaning nothing.

Feelings do not count; so when I say 80% chance of a mild winter and
only a 20% of a cold one is worthless.

Cheers
Paul
--
'Wisest are they that know they do not know.' Socrates.
Paul Bartlett FRMetS