On Dec 7, 11:49*pm, Adam Lea wrote:
On 07/12/10 20:07, Dawlish wrote:





On Dec 7, 7:50 pm, "Will *wrote:
"Lawrence *wrote in message

aweb.com...

Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0

Mega!!! :-)

This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed..

Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?

Eskimo Will
--

Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.

Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.

The Arctic oscillation is forecast to become strongly negative towards
the middle of the month. That would be consistent with frequent cold
blasts over the UK and Europe over that period.

http://www.cpc.noaa.gov/products/pre...ex/ao_inde...- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

True, but it it is a *forecast*, based upon the models and you have to
remember that the AO is not a cause of weather, it is simply a
pressure difference, forecast by NWP output. I agree with the AO
forecast for mid-month and I've forecast that the UK cold will resume
next week, because of a probable northly flow around a blocking
Atlantic/UK high (which will contribute to a -ve AO. However, just as
you cannot use the gfs for forecasting at 2 weeks+, neither can you
use a forecast of the AO turning negative to do the same thing, as it
is based upon the same numerical data.

The winter *may* assume epic proportions (in spring, don't anyone say;
"Dawlish didn't forecast it", because no-one can. They can just say it
will/may happen - and there's a big, big difference between those two
things, as forecasting prowess requires a past record based on
seasonal forecasting accuracy outcomes. NO-one here, or on any other
Internet forum has that), or it may assume the proportions of a fairly
average British winter with colder spells and the cold may disappear.
However, please don't think that just because someone gets it right
once, or twice, they have discovered the holy grail of winter
forecasting. They haven't. Promise you.

realist mode off, now where's my snow!! *))