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Old December 8th 10, 11:07 AM posted to uk.sci.weather
Dawlish Dawlish is offline
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On Dec 8, 10:15*am, Teignmouth wrote:
On Dec 8, 9:53*am, Dawlish wrote:





On Dec 8, 9:23*am, Lawrence13 wrote:


On Dec 7, 8:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:


On Dec 7, 7:50*pm, "Will Hand" wrote:


"Lawrence Jenkins" wrote in message


web.com...


Some amazing charts tonight there's one synoptic set up showing as Steve
Murr said on TWO -a cross polar flow. Now that really does look
grotesquely special
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ecmw...1-216.GIF?07-0


Mega!!! :-)


This winter is going to be historic. Already records are being smashed.


Does anyone know where I can get some *really strong* tranquilisers, I'm so
excited nowadays looking at the charts and photos I'm shaking?


Eskimo Will
--


Will, calm down. This ramping is getting silly. It's only 3 weeks
since you forecast an average winter and were seeing no signs that it
would be as cold as the last one. Now the winter is going to be
"historic". Which is correct and what has changed in 3 weeks? The
charts show cold out to 10 days. No-one knows what the weather will be
like much after that. The winter may indeed be "historic", but as
absolutely no-one was forecasting that for the UK 3 weeks ago, why
should we believe anyone who is now forecasting it 3 weeks later? What
this proves is that either your original forecast is a guess (unless
it turns milder by Christmas and stays reasonabley mild with a few
colder spells, which it could do, of course) or this spot of ramping
is a hopecast.


Happens every winter. It's just that this winter, it is presently
cold, so we get this silly desperate hoping that we'll see a winter of
epic proportions. We may, but at this stage, just like 3 weeks ago, no-
one knows.- Hide quoted text -


- Show quoted text -


Will openly accepts he gets excited and openly accepts that no one
including himself could have forecaste what has just happened, the
difference with Will and others is the synoptics all the models are
throwing up. of they may not come off but at least in the last three
winter the synoptics are consistently being produced and so far
delivered . I will also say that in ten years of using this group I
can't recall anything as exciting as we are seeing now.


It is a weather NG and without looking at the rules I doubt there's
anything there that says *enthusiasm. excitement, eager expectation
and eulogising on potential exceptional circumstatnces are not
according to the forum rules-acceptable. So the pair of you-give him
and us a break we want to get excited and yes it may all end in
tears.


Anyhow Tudor's trombone may benefit from so cryogenics.- Hide quoted text -


- Show quoted text -


errrrrrrrr. No. Not when it is daft. Like I said; calm down. People
have just as much right to criticise the ramping as the rampers have
to ramp. (I do hate that word, but that's what coldies do when it is
cold, or further cold is possible!). No-one can forecast at 2 weeks
with any record of reasonable accuracy, so best not to believe the
ones that do, even when they are "forecasting" exactly what you want
to see forecast.


Will = Cold Winter Ramping
Dawlish = Global Warming Ramping

What's the difference?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -


The difference is that we've had cold winter ramping and we haven't
had any global warming ramping (whatever that is) whatsoever! Have we?
I've just pointed out that your second post is purely speculative
ramping T, which it is. Nothing more. Nothing whatsoever about GW. The
reaction from people when I point this out to them always surprises
me, though it's time I stopped being so naive at the depth of feeling
against anyone that points out to coldies that they may just be
talking b*llocks when they puts his wish for cold into some kind of
meteorological hopecast. Nothing wrong factually with anything I said,
but it's hard for the coldies to accept that anyone could possibly
criticise their hopes and needs for cold to happen.

Like I said. Happens every winter. Each to their own, I say.