Thread: 12Z ECM
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Old December 8th 10, 03:19 PM posted to uk.sci.weather
Teignmouth Teignmouth is offline
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Default 12Z ECM

On Dec 8, 11:19*am, Teignmouth wrote:
I thought these comments might start as soon as I pointed out the
reality. *((


The reality is the UK is experiencing an exceptional cold spell, the
current CET is -2.0c, that is a whopping -7.6c below normal or, to put
it another way more than 4 Standard Deviations below the 1971-2009
normal of +4.8c. Someone with a maths degree should be able to
calculate the probabilty of this occuring. Philip Eden's CEThttp://www.climate-uk.com/

Also, there is a thread on TWO comparing this December with previous
December Central England Temperatures, worth a look.http://www.theweatheroutlook.com/two...spx?g=posts&t=...

So I make no appologies for talking about this current cold spell, and
suggesting that it may be a once in a liftime event, because I've
never experienced such a cold start to December/Winter in my 39 years
on this planet.


Not sure if I'm reading this correct, and it's from Wikipedia, but 3
Standard Deviations = 1 in 370 years, 4 Standard Deviations = 1 in
15,787 years, and 5 Standard Deviations = 1,744,277 years.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Normal_distribution

I've calculated the December mean from 1971 - 2009 as +5.0c, with a
Standard Deviation of 1.5c, so by my calculations the current CET that
is running at -2.0c is somewhere between 4 & 5 Standard Deviations.

I would be most grateful if someone could confirm?