On Dec 8, 5:27*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message

...

Probably a safe bet with the models :-)

GFS 06 & 12z

Well I wouldn't bet on it. EC's 500hPa ensemble mean continues to look well
blocked out to day 10 and I can't see that changing very quicklyhttp://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/f...

As always I'd pay little attention to the often volatile operational runs,
especially the fantasy GFS *beyond day 5, and keep your eye on the trends in
the ENS output, e.g.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Jon.

I've been offline for the past couple of days but the situation
developing on the models looks very serious indeed for north-west
Europe and Scandinavia - I realise that the Norway and Sweden are used
to such conditions but this looks severe even by their standards -
especially with the run of mild winters up until a couple of years ago