"Jon O'Rourke" wrote in message
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"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
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Probably a safe bet with the models :-)

GFS 06 & 12z

Well I wouldn't bet on it. EC's 500hPa ensemble mean continues to look
well blocked out to day 10 and I can't see that changing very quickly
http://www.ecmwf.int/products/foreca...0!!chart.gi f

As always I'd pay little attention to the often volatile operational runs,
especially the fantasy GFS beyond day 5, and keep your eye on the trends
in the ENS output, e.g.
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png


Exactly I use the ENS output most of the time for my signals. Even the
spaghetti maps are useful if you know how to interpret them properly. For
example even at T+264 DT06z there is a good signal for the omega block well
to the west over Greenland putting UK in the cold cyclonic eastern arm. The
block even being a tad further west than the last one meaning that western
areas will likely see more snow as lows get stuck over UK in very cold air.

Will
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