On Dec 8, 5:27*pm, "Jon O'Rourke" wrote:
"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message

...

Probably a safe bet with the models :-)

GFS 06 & 12z

Well I wouldn't bet on it. EC's 500hPa ensemble mean continues to look well
blocked out to day 10 and I can't see that changing very quicklyhttp://www.ecmwf.int/products/forecasts/d/getchart/catalog/products/f...

As always I'd pay little attention to the often volatile operational runs,
especially the fantasy GFS *beyond day 5, and keep your eye on the trends in
the ENS output, e.g.http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png

Jon.

Not only the GFS operational but also the GFS ensemble mean, although
there's a lot of deviation from the mean. Still something to consider.
Going to need to wait for the 12Z ECMWF ensembles.....

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz500m16.gif
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/pics/Rz50016.gif