On Dec 17, 1:21*pm, "Keith (Southend)G"
wrote:
On Dec 17, 12:44*pm, "



wrote:
On Dec 17, 10:41*am, John Hall wrote:

In article
,

*Nick writes:
Doesn't seem to agree with what Will and others are saying here, but
the latest Met Office forecast doesn't seem to suggest much snow for
London and SE England, at least over the weekend. Tomorrow's is
forecast to be "a mixture of rain, sleet and snow" and Sunday's event
doesn't seem to be happening at all.

So is there still a chance of something significant in lowland
southern England? Seems from this forecast like Saturday is now going
to be warmer than anticipated, and the low track on Sunday will miss
here.

Nick

If the models are to be believed, then the chance of anything other than
snow - except perhaps right on the south coast - looks pretty remote.

That is the problem, believing the models. It seems to me that no one
really knows if, when or where a more enhanced area of snow is going
to develop, and which direction it will subsequently move.

One day the model has one over the Irish Sea, moving SE towards Wales
and then Southern England, the next day it does not.

My advice would be to watch (a) the satellite sequences, and (b)
pressure variations to the North and West of Scotland. Then make your
own minds up.

I wouldn't make such a broad statement at the moment, looking at the
energy in those showers/polar lows/troughs coming down from around
Scotland these are not going to fizzle out but more likely be part of
tomorrow developing scenario. Someone will cop it over the weekend and
it maybe more widespread than you think.




Really?

And where do you think that energy is coming from?

Yes, sea temperatures.

Do you really think that the models can resolve sea temperatures in
the Irish Sea?


The forecast that "someone will cop it over the weekend" is not the
sort of thing that the media or the public will appreciate, and proves
my point which I will repeat:-

It seems to me that no one really knows if, when or where a more
enhanced area of snow is going
to develop, and which direction it will subsequently move.

If you had bothered to take my advice concerning the satellite and
pressure pattern, I would now suggest that you watch for a circulation
developing somewhere over Scotland, in the satellite infra red cloud
sequences.

This would at least give you an idea of where a small low may be
developing and then you could watch its movement.