On Dec 18, 9:21*pm, Dawlish wrote:
On Dec 18, 9:05*pm, Yokel wrote:





On 18/12/2010 19:27, The Incredible Mr Freeze wrote:

funny how ogre appears at first sight of mild weather. you been hiding
under your troll bridge since mid november?

forecast, all absolute bollox of course.

On 18/12/2010 7:16 PM, Dawlish wrote:
Enough agreement and consistency for me.

**At T240, on 28th Dec 2010, mild Atlantic air will have invaded the
UK and the cold of December will be over, at least for a while. An
Atlantic regime will be operative, though the change to this milder
air will probably be slow and messy, with a wintry mix as Atlantic
fronts push eastwards. By the 28th, the majority of the country will
be frost free on a night and precipitation in lowland areas will be of
rain and not snow in almost all areas. Much milder temperatures than
those at present, will be recorded on the 28th in all areas. If the
thaw is rapid, flooding could be a problem for some. **

There you go. Whether the mildness lasts, or the cold returns, is
another matter and not knowable at present, IMO.

In defence of Dawlish, this is not just his forecast.

You are also telling the professionals running the Met Office and the
GFS forecasting models that they cannot do their jobs.

The information Dawlish has used is freely available and can be checked
on via the following link:

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?action=nwdc;sess=

This takes you to a "selection pad" where you can choose your model, the
time ahead and the predicted elements. *For the purpose of this
discussion the 850hPa temperature and see level pressure (SLP) are most
revealing.

If the link does not work for you, go to "Netweather.tv" and from the
top menu bar select "Weather" and "Datacentre". *The "Weather Chart
Viewer" panel on this page will take you to the forecast model chart
display.

The best way to use this facility is to go to it daily over a period of
several days. *If the same story is told day after day and by more than
one model, there is a reasonable prospect of the outcome happening. *If
the forecasts vary wildly from day to day and / or between models, then
the computers are guessing. *A certain amount of meteorological
knowledge to actually interpret the charts (it is DIY with no text
interpretation) is also desirable.

--
* - Yokel -

Yokel posts via a spam-trap account which is not read- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Hi Yokel, Merci. I'd just go with 5 runs and agreement with the ECM.
However this stalker doesn't understand sense like you've just posted
and it won't follow your links, as it only has one real reason for
posting here.

I don't reply to stalkers. Others do and reply positively too, thus
supporting their activity. They know who they are and they know
exactly what they do. That's for them and their conscience. This one
is very careful, these days, about what it says and it has modified
its activity since I contacted its local police, though, rather
riskily and stupidly, it hasn't stopped. At least it now knows the
possible consequences, however. It is an "it" to me (but not to
others), as it never reveals its name on usenet.

On a different note and back to the purpose of this newsgroup, which
it ridicules with every post, the 00z ensembles don't give too much of
a clue to the weather at 10 days, with the ECM being a warm outlier
and the gfs being a colder run - and there is one hell of a spread
after only a few days. It will be interesting to see the 12z
ensembles.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

12z gfs actually shows good ensemble agreement for a mildening around
the 26/27th.

http://www.netweather.tv/index.cgi?a...nsviewer;sess=