On Dec 19, 5:31*pm, Yokel wrote:
On 19/12/2010 14:15, Pete B wrote:

"Keith (Southend)G" wrote in message
...
On Dec 19, 1:26 pm, "Graham" wrote:
Met office now revised there outlook to a warmer spell from boxing
day into
the new year.
So I wonder if this is the start of the big atlantic return??
We could I suppose see a mild or very mild Jan/Feb, which despite the
bitter
December would give us a Winter above average, so not that historic

Graham

I've always had that outcome in mind as this came so early.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

Exactly as what happened in Dec 1981/Jan 1982 then.

After the December 1981/early Jan 1982 cold spells with both English &
Scottish temperature records broken or equalled, the mildness came
back mid Jan so January 1982 as a whole was not an exceptional month,
overall CET value of 2.6. February 1982 was a mild month with a CET
value of 4.8, higher than any 1970's Feb apart from 1974 & 1977 and a
value not to be reached again until Feb 1988.

I've also felt that this will be the way, so often in my personal
experience, early starting winters like this beginning late November
seem to change around New Year when the Sun's angle in the NH starts
increasing significantly.

You may be right about the weather often changing around New Year time -
but normally it is the other way, colder later on.

The sun stays more than 20 degrees south of the equator from about the
third week in November to the third week in January. *In all this time
its height in the sky at mid-day varies by no more than about 6 or 7
times its apparent diameter. *The sun's "declination" (to give it the
technical name) north or south has a sine dependence with date, not
linear between the solstices.

So whatever causes the change in type at New Year, it is not the sun's
northward return. *The sun does not really start to rise a lot higher in
the sky until February comes round. *Have a look at the "polar night"
dates for north Norway, only a few degrees north of the Arctic Circle. *
They are normally late January for the sun's return.

I'd agree with that - while the nights are already drawing out at new
year it only really becomes noticeable in late January, around the
20th when the afternoons are noticeably lighter. The earliest
occurrences of true spring-like weather tend to happen late January
too, while the increased intensity of the midday sun tends to be
noticeable early February.

Nick