"John Hall" wrote in message
...
In article
,
Dawlish writes:
..............and as I said, we could all be wrong. Neither the 12z
gfs, nor the 12z ECM support the milder option tonight.

You must be looking at a different 12Z ECM from me! The operational run
generates a very deep and slow-moving low in the Atlantic that pushes
southwesterlies and westerlies across the UK from Christmas Day onwards.
It could hardly be more different from the operational 12Z GFS, which
sticks an intense High over the UK for most of the post-Christmas week.


Looking at
http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php
the 12Z ECM is an outlier.
There have been 3 broad solutions so far (in all models):
1. Rapid return to Sw'lies
2. Build of pressure over UK then a battleground
3. Faster build of pressure over Scandinavia and a quick return to an
easterly.

Will
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