On 21/12/2010 10:50, John Hall wrote:
In ,
Dave writes:
John Hall wrote:
There's a piece by Philip Eden on the BBC website entitled "Time to
spend more money preparing for colder winters?":
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-12042733
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Brilliant article, as I would expect. I agree with it and thought these
two points were well made.

"The first thing to say is that it is essential to place current events
in proper historical and scientific contexts.
The last three winters have appeared to be cold and snowy only in
comparison with the relatively mild and snow-free winters of the last
two decades.
Were we able to pick them up and transplant them into, say, the 1940s
or 1950s or 1960s they would not have looked out of place at all."

"What can be said with very little doubt is that, once this cluster of
cold winters has finished, we will have another lengthy run of mild and
rainy ones, and if we spend piles of cash on snowploughs and de-icing
equipment, we may come to regret it."

Dave
Yes. I do wonder, though, if there might be a tendency for the jetstream
to have become weaker, and hence more erratic, because GW has increased
temperatures in polar regions more than in the temperate zone, thus
reducing the temperature gradient that presumably "drives" it.

Trouble is, whenever there is a run of two or three extreme seasons, it
is all too readily put down to climate change. And people's memories
are very short.

Remember the run of hot summers in the early 2000s? Those of us in
South-East England were told we would soon have to plant cacti if we
wanted anything to survive Summer in our gardens. Some of us would love
to see one or two of those summers again!

Then there were the serious floods a few years back and we were told
there would be more mild, wet winters. Now the government are asking if
there are going to be more cold ones!

While I find it hard to argue against AGW - I don't see how you can
artificially double the concentration of a critical trace gas in the
atmosphere without it having some effect - there is no doubt that some
people are going overboard with the possible consequences. And, by
doing so, they are damaging their own argument as once the latest
"fluctuation" has passed then they have to move to another one.

And - as others have pointed out - severe as this spell of weather has
been, it is not as if winter weather like this has not been seen
before. One thing that has possibly changed is that our more
"developed" society (with its higher expectations and centralisation of
vital services so we have to travel more to shop and go to work and
school) is more vulnerable to the conditions. And in 1963 there were
not the vast hordes going on foreign holidays, etc to expose the
performance of the airports - and, of course, there was no "Eurostar"!

--
- Yokel -

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