Keith (Southend)G wrote:

It doesn't look as threatening as the weather we have had the last 5
weeks, but I was just looking at 2m 12z temperatures on GFS and it
barely gets above freezing right through to T+384, in fact it appears
to drag somewhat colder air in from the east / SE as time goes on.
The yellow thickness colours lead you to think things are going to
much milder, but I guess the continent is not going to warm up this
time of year so the lower layers are going to be cold, especially
given all the snow over northern Europe.


Keith, are you looking at thickness or 500 mb height? Also, under anticyclonic
conditions the 1000-850 mb thickness will give a much better guide to the
coldness of the lowest layers than the 1000-500 mb thickness.


--
Norman Lynagh
Tideswell, Derbyshire
303m a.s.l.