"Phil Layton" wrote in message
...
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...urope-blog.asp

Thinks that's it for us, and admits this is a big change for the rest of
Europe where he said the cold would be strongest...

Funny how things change in a week - was saying that the cold would return
after the 5th....

I'm not sure how anyone (not just JB) can have confidence in seasonal
forecasting when changes of this scale happen in such a short space of
time!

Phil

He may be right but I'm gobsmacked to be honest. I have been tracking the
stratwarm and it is propagating downwards, strong zonal mean 60-90N rises
now at 10hPa and 30hPa, I am sticking to my guns for now as, as I predicted,
models are all over the place as they struggle with the details of the
stratospheric changes.

http://acdb-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_s.../ann_data.html

Anyway I'm off out to enjoy this sunny frosty day, because it is the only
weather I have got :-)

Will
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