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Dawlish · January 9th 11, 08:01 PM posted to uk.sci.weather

On Jan 9, 7:25*pm, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Keith (Southend)G wrote:
On Jan 9, 11:17 am, Howard Neil wrote:
On 09/01/2011 11:08, Scott W wrote:

On Jan 9, 8:42 am, Phil *wrote:
http://www.accuweather.com/ukie/bast...urope-blog.asp
Thinks that's it for us, and admits this is a big change for the rest of
Europe where he said the cold would be strongest...
Funny how things change in a week - was saying that the cold would
return after the 5th....
I'm not sure how anyone (not just JB) can have confidence in seasonal
forecasting when changes of this scale happen in such a short space of time!
Phil
what a surprise - he'll probably be changing his mind back to cold
again in a few days...
I wonder if we could be seeing a variation of the old Red Indian
firewood joke here?:-

It was autumn, and the Indians on the remote reservation asked their new
Chief if the winter was going to be cold or mild.
Since he was an Indian Chief in a modern society, he had never been
taught the old secrets, and when he looked at the sky, he couldn't tell what
the weather was going to be.

Nevertheless, to be on the safe side, he replied to his tribe that the
winter was indeed going to be cold and that the members of the village
should collect wood to be prepared.

But also being a practical leader, after several days he got an idea. He
went to the phone booth, called the National Weather Service and asked, "Is
the coming winter going to be cold?"

"It looks like this winter is going to be quite cold indeed," the
Meteorologist at the weather service responded.

So the Chief went back to his people and told them to collect even more wood
in order to be prepared.

One week later he called the National Weather Service again. Is it
going to be a very cold winter?" he asked.

"Yes," the man at National Weather Service again replied, "it's going to be
a very cold winter."

The Chief again went back to his people and ordered them to collect every
scrap of wood they could find.

Two weeks later he called the National Weather Service again. "Are you
absolutely sure that the winter is going to be very cold?"

Absolutely," the man replied. "It looks like it's going to be one of the
coldest winters ever."

"How can you be so sure?" the Chief asked.

The weatherman replied, "The Indians are collecting firewood like crazy."

--
Howard Neil

What is worth mentioning is that as Will has pointed out, there are
many more complex things going on through the atmosphere which we
still need to know more about and are only just starting to add to the
equation, which is far from complete. It will be interesting to see
what actually happens.

I could be smug and say 'I told you so', as I have *and still feel the
winter came early, so will the spring, but that would be claiming
credit just like the Pier's of the world, when at the end of the day
it is only my personal gut feeling based on nothing else than gut
feeling. My next concern would be a return to cold weather at Easter,
but again, just guessing.

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home & Abroad"

----------------------
Well all the others might not be guessing but they may as well be as
most of them will be wrong but someone will get lucky.
Dave- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Someone *always* gets lucky.