It looks like we will have some better idea after that date what the
rest of the month holds. When the ensembles are that split the mean is
meaningless. (excuse the play on words!). At the moment it it is saying
there is about a 33% percent chance of it being either cold, average or
mild from the 8th, which is quite different from assuming an average of
all of the peturbations for which there is little confidence.
Dave