On Jan 30, 1:06*am, Dave Cornwell wrote:
Lawrence Jenkins wrote:
"Dave Cornwell" wrote in message
...
It looks like we will have some better idea after that date what the rest
of the month holds. When the ensembles are that split the mean is
meaningless. (excuse the play on words!). At the moment it it is saying
there is about a 33% percent chance of it being either cold, average or
mild from the 8th, which is quite different from assuming an average of
all of the peturbations for which there is little confidence.
Dave

Peturbations, are you sure?

Indeed I am Mastur Lawrence ;-)

Good job he's not called Lawrence Bates!

I'm of a mind that the unsettled weather will continue, but the I'm
also of a mind that determining temperature detail is not possible at
that distance, Will disagrees and has gone for colder westerlies, but
again, he might be over-egging the likelihood of those downstream
possibilities that he discussed (very informative, BTW) affecting the
UK in that way. The charts don't really suggest anything that cold,
but it's not an all-mild outlook, by any means - especially on the
higher ground of northern Britain.