In article ,
Dave Cornwell writes:

Will

The ensemble isn't out yet, but it will be interesting to see
if it supports the operational run.
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Well let's hope it doesn't turn out like the one on the 12z which
plummeted to -27C on the 17th. Did you see that? Someone must have
spilt their coffee on the dataset ;-)

Yes, I saw it. It was the GFS ensemble rather than the ECMWF, though. I
think it actually only goes to -20, and that the line you were looking
at is actually from an intersecting precipitation spike. Of course, even
-20 would be quite something, at least on a par with and probably even
colder than in January 1987. And there's another ensemble member going
to -15. Of course those two members are massive outliers, and the other
18 are "normal" and mostly on the mild side.

I was intrigued enough to look at all 20 GFS 12Z ensemble members at
T+384, and quite a few show an anticyclone over Scandinavia by then.

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html

and select from the 4th row down. P10 seems to be the really cold
ensemble member.

Of course by the time you read this the 18Z ensemble may be up, and no
doubt all will have changed.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)