The end of Feb could be
interesting WRT colder weather.

Note the word "could" *))

So the derided "hopecasters" of recent threads might end up being
correct?! At least for that part of their ruminations.

As ever we'll have to wait and see but what if this cold should happen
to pan out? As long as this block develops, then if it is in the
"right" place then it will to some degree or other. Longevity and
severity are other questions, and if they can be criticized it may be
for being overly bullish beyond outlining a return to blocking late
winter. I have my own thoughts on that.

It is of course possible they might just have got lucky, but then so
would have I (and a few others I expect), but we'd have "got lucky"
through strangely similar thought processes. At that range it's a
question of identifying possible trends and talking in terms of
probabilities. It's an aspect of forecasting that is of growing
importance commercially (so, actually, I'm surprised in a way that the
company in question publicly issues their thoughts).

Obviously I have got no reason to support this competitor but there is
probably a reason why they (and we and others) have customers in the
energy markets for seasonal and sub-seasonal estimations. Traders are
not stupid or gullible people, not by a long chalk. On the other hand
there are "long range forecasters" who indeed are nothing more than
hopecasters or guessers. It's important to distinguish.


Stephen.