On Feb 8, 7:11*pm, Exeter Weather Centre wrote:
The UK will be in the middle of the battle between the cold air out of
eastern Europe and the mild air off the Atlantic in the next couple of
weeks. The various models have been varying as to which scenario is
preferred, but the consensus is at present that the really cold air
out of Europe will be kept at bay, However, it doesn't mean that the
mild Atlantic air will win either. Although it will become mild for
the next couple of days, it will then gradually cool off to probably a
bit below average and feel a bit on the chilly side, with some snow
over hills, especially in the north and possibly a bit on lower ground
as well. There is a 10 to 15% chance that the bitterly cold easterly
air will arrive later, but we will have to see how things develop.
What does anyone else think.

Robin

Thanks for your musings Robin. I'd put the chance of a "bitterly cold"
easterly higher than you do, at about 33%, or 3/1 against. I don't
think we are out of the woods at all with this one, yet. I've always
said that the cold will most probably stay to our east, over Russia
and eastern Europe, but I haven't had the confidence to say it
definitely won't come our way, as the models have shown neither
consistency, nor agreement on any definite outcome. It's the same
tonight. I honestly wish the MetO would have the guts to say that.

What I will say, with close to 100% confidence, is that "bitter cold"
and esterlies will not be afflicting the UK this weekend and I expect
my forecast of Atlantic weather for tomorrow, from 9 days ago, to be
correct! *))