In article
,
Dawlish writes:
For nearly 2 weeks now, we've had a lingering model threat of an
easterly push and a winter with two cold bookends sandwiching mild.
However, with the model runs last night, the cold looks like it will
never really make it, to take hold.

Don't despair for some snow in the east and on high ground next week,
however. Some continental air does look like it will affect the UK,
but by 10 days. the Atlantic will probably have blown it all away. A
short Feb cold spell is what is very likely to happen, then back into
the Atlantic air that is wetting and shaking my house this morning!

The 00Z GFS and ECMWF operational runs are both massive mild outliers. I
suppose, however, that might not be coincidence, and their finer grid
might have enabled them to pick up something that most other ensemble
members have missed. The GFS ensemble mean 850mb temperature is still on
the mild side, but with a substantial number of very cold members -
certainly the most I can remember seeing from this model for quite some
time. The ECMWF mean is cold - at least for Holland - without being
severely so, which of course means that a lot of members are colder than
that.

http://www.wzkarten3.de/pics/MT8_London_ens.png
http://www.weerplaza.nl/15daagseverw...asp?r=zuidwest

In spite of the operational runs, my feeling is that the chance of cold
conditions has increased slightly with the 00Z runs, whilst still being
odds against.
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)