On Feb 15, 8:50*am, PJ wrote:
On 15/02/2011 07:00, Dawlish wrote:





On Feb 14, 10:34 pm, "Will *wrote:
Did he provide them on TWO board before he was banned I wonder?
Just a thought? Is there an archive on TWO?
There certainly has not been 99 forecasts on USW!

Will
--

"Siberian *wrote in message

...

prove it.
post where and when , all links please.

On 14/02/2011 8:12 PM, Dawlish wrote:
. You are welcome to judge it at outcome, as people have been
welcome to judge the 99 previous forecasts:- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'll look forward to you judging it at outcome. Every one of these 99
forecasts has been published on Netweather, TWO and here. I can assure
you that they have been picked over when they've been wrong. It will
be good to recieve any comments on the hundredth.

If you feel it is easy PJ, to forecast at 10 days at any time, all I
ask is that you try it and see how easy it is. I'm sure you'll be
successful, if it is easy. Fair enough?

I did not imply it was was easy, just that the definition of a forecast
is incorrect. I stated that the models generate the forecast and you
wait until there is agreement between them. A forecast is based upon
present and past raw data.

If I were to produce a 10 day forecast based upon model agreement then I
hope that if that were to be successful on my first attempt then I would
have Newton's humility when he wrote in a letter to Robert Hooke "If I
have seen further, it is by standing on the shoulders of giants".
PJ- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I doubt whether I'd accept one success as confirmation of ability PJ!
There are some on here that won't accept 79 successes as confirmation
of anything and if there were another 1000, it would still not be
confirmation of anything. Rabbie Burns' spider comes to mind.........
The brick wall, is, of course, in the mind of the poster above, who
feels that no amateur meteorologist should ever proffer anything
different to what the "giants" already do so well and no-one ought
ever to question the wisdom of the ancients, even when that wisdom
means they cannot forecast at 10 days+ with even reasonable accuracy.