In article ,
Togless writes:
Hi folks

Some weeks ago there was a big fuss on certain websites about the Met
Office's long range probability map from October 2010 which showed a 60
- 80% probability of above average temperature for the three-month
period November 2010 to January 2011 -

http://autonomousmind.files.wordpres...ice_3mo_temp_m
ap_oct.jpg?w=500&h=549&h=549

There was a lot of feigned outrage that the Met Office had forecast a
mild winter and had therefore got it badly wrong, given the wintry
weather of December 2010. Obviously this is not true because they
correctly forecast the early onset of cold and wintry weather well in
advance, but I don't know how to find out how well they did with the
long-range probability map. Does anyone know, please? Did that three-
month period turn out to be above average temperature or not? I can
find the maps on the Met Office's website but I can't find out how to
evaluate how well they did after the fact.

No, November-January were well below average. November was cold,
December exceptionally cold, and January near average.

http://www.climate-uk.com/page3.html
--
John Hall

"The covers of this book are too far apart."
Ambrose Bierce (1842-1914)