On Feb 16, 4:05*pm, Stephen Davenport wrote:
That's about 1,000
possible daily forecasts, and around one in ten. So if 70-something
per cent of that one in ten is correct and the 90 per cent not
attempted are "wrong", then that's a "correct" rate of just under 8
per cent. We do a lot better than that.

I've tried the same maths with Paul, but it unfortunately falls on
deaf ears, Stephen.

You could take an even more evasive forecasting method of say,
forecasting when 7 consecutive GFS/EC runs that point to the same
forecast rather than 3, publish once every 3 months, and claim a 95%
accuracy rate. Huzzah.

Richard