On Feb 16, 4:05*pm, Stephen Davenport wrote:

3. As I understand it, nobody would expect a daily forecast from a non-
professional (and a degree of kudos to anyone that tries) but I think
you have made 100 forecasts in, what, three years? That's about 1,000
possible daily forecasts, and around one in ten. So if 70-something
per cent of that one in ten is correct and the 90 per cent not
attempted are "wrong", then that's a "correct" rate of just under 8
per cent. We do a lot better than that.

p.s. I'm quite glad that a professional who is doing actual day-to-day
medium range forecasting is able to throw his two penneth in to this
discussion.

Richard