"Stephen Davenport" wrote in message
...
... but I think
you have made 100 forecasts in, what, three years? That's about 1,000
possible daily forecasts, and around one in ten. So if 70-something
per cent of that one in ten is correct and the 90 per cent not
attempted are "wrong", then that's a "correct" rate of just under 8
per cent.

But there's a flaw in that calculation.
You cannot assume that the 90% 'not attempted' would have been wrong
- a certain proportion would have been correct simply by chance.
(just like the 'professional forecasts )