"freddie" wrote in message
...
On Feb 13, 12:17 pm, freddie wrote:
From midweek onwards, an increasingly cold undercut from the frozen
Continental reservoir across eastern Europe, will lead to 'bitter'
conditions being drawn towards us. Beware the misleadingly benign
850mb temperatures. Despite advertised temperatures I have seen, I
would anticipate values nearer 1-4C across central and eastern UK by
Friday. As the next set of fronts from the west engage this undercut,
snow threat is significant as we end the week.

Any 'breakdown' from the west thereafter is fraught with uncertainty,
and will inevitably lead to the risk of further snow, before milder
air erodes the block, if indeed it does.

Maybe a degree or so out at 2-5C, but at midday, temperatures are now
falling across eastern England as lower dewpoints arrive.
Otherwise I'm quite happy with this forecast from 5 days out, with the
other aspects of the forecasts still valid. Much to play for....
==========

I agree Freddie, cold undercuts are often under-estimated by those who look
at 850 hPa only. The 06GFS shows the massive uncertainty at 3 days ahead.
Bergen, Aberdeen and London ensembles show this. Dublin is much more
certain. This to me indicates a battleground in the east as the occlusion
slows down with the gradient dropping out all the time. Already Saturday's
front is slower. This does not bode well for brightness in the east, cold
and damp mostly.
6C still here at Haytor in the milder west.

Cheers,

Will
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