On Feb 22, 7:37*pm, Dawlish wrote:
The 12z ECM is enough for me.

**on 4th March, at T240, an anticyclone will be centred in the
Atlantic to our west. It will produce a cool NW, or a cold northerly
flow and temperatures in the UK will be generally below average. Snow
is quite possible over the hills of northern Britain and there will be
night frosts in many areas, if skies clear.**

A cool start to March.

Looking the same this morning, but the gfs does keep kicking out these
very cold operationals, doesn't it? The 06z is a classic example. I
don't think there's a chance of that being anywhere near the ensemble
mean at 10 days. The ECM is where I think we'll be in 9 days.