"Mr Blowman" S@not here.karoo.co.uk wrote in message
...
Mr Hand, scientific or not, based on todays 06z GFS and UKMO 0z I would
suggest Mr Gazes settled beginning to December seems closer to the mark
than
your recent effort.


Regards

Mr Blowman



Mr Blowman, hah, yes mate. I would rather believed a time-served forecaster
who has seen it, and done it etc. We'll come back to the Sainted Mr Gaze's
forecasts at the end of December and the end of winter, then we'll see who's
got it. You can bet the 12z models runs will be different from the 06z,
nothing is surer.

Sorry Will, but I think all private companies who produce forecasts should
be made to analyse their forecasts at the end of the period, and then
APOLOGISE if they get it wrong, rather than trumpet their latest forecasts,
having quietly forgotten their failures.

In forecasting, "No-one remembers when you get it right, but you aren't
allowed to forget if its wrong." Perhaps something to remember.

However for those who might be interested...

06Z GFS T+96 & T+120 does show High pressure TRYING to encroach from the
east, but t+144 shows it retreating and T+168 shows mild SW'lies...

00Z UKMO T+96 shows high trying to build but by T+120 its retreating, and by
T+144 shows sw'lies with a front pushing through.

00Z NOGAPS T+96 shows high trying to build from the east, but with T+120 not
available, T+144 suggests a return to sw'lies and possible stormy
conditions.

00z ENS T+96 shows s or sw'lies across most or all of the country, T+120,
ditto with fronts approaching, T+144 has fronts sat across Ireland with
sw'lies across Britain, and T+168 shows the fronts having passed and sw'lies
for all.

I could go on, but none of the models I have access to on
http://www.wetterzentrale.de suggest anything else but zonal unsettled
weather out to the end of the coming week.

Now I am willing to admit that beyond T+96, these models are best taken with
a large sack of finest Cheshire salt, but when they all seem to suggest
similar things, perhaps their MIGHT be something in the trend they are
suggesting.

Sorry Darren for usurping your regular post but thats whats the models that
Mr Blowman is quoting are showing. If two days of possibly cooler settled
weather for the SE are enough to make the TWO forecast correct, then I
despair....
--
Rob Overfield

http://www.astrosport02.karoo.net/YorkshireWeather/

"Will Hand" wrote in message
...

================================================== ==================
This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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Mr Blowman, thanks for that constructive scientific comment.

Just looked at the 18Z progs and they look pretty zonal to me after
midweek.
Mild too I might add.

Cheers,

Will.