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This posting expresses the personal view and opinions of the author.
Something which everyone on this planet should be able to do.
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Looks like according to the 00Z GFS ensemble
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten/fsenseur.html
the 06Z and 12Z GFS runs that the trough disruption could cause quite a few
problems in Scotland, northern Ireland and maybe northern England on Thursday
and Friday. The likely problems are that the front will be slow moving with
continued pulses of very heavy rain running along the front in the warm
conveyor. This has obvious implications for flooding. Positioning of the front
is critical, particularly how much push there is on the upper trough before
disruption occurs, that depends on how much the upstream low deepens and moves
of course. It could end up further east putting SW England and Wales in the
firing line. SE England looks likely to escape with only patchy light rain. Wind
could be an issue in places too as pressure falls run along the front. Models
usually handle the all important details of disruption badly and I'm sure that
Martin and Jon would agree that upper trough disruptions can lead to some very
nasty conditions in the UK and are a forecasters nightmare.
But at least it will be mild :-)
Will.
--
" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk
DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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"Will Hand" wrote in message
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This forecast summary is my *PERSONAL OPINION* of how the weather may unfold
next week. I will take no responsibility whatsoever for any actions arising
from
its use. It is provided freely in the spirit of freedom and the great love for
meteorology that I personally enjoy and wish to share freely with others.
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Summary valid for Sunday 05/12/04 to Saturday 11/12/04
TOI (time of issue) Thursday 02/12/04 2100 UK local time
This summary is based on a quick appraisal of the GFS, JMA, ECMWF, UKMO, FAX,
and ENS (NCEP ensemble) labelled charts available from the superb
http://www.wetterzentrale.de/topkarten
Confidence high that next week will gradually see a change to very unsettled,
wet, and at times, very mild conditions in all areas. However, confidence only
low to moderate for the details of the change, but reasonably confident of the
sequence.
A ridge of high pressure should ensure a fine day in most places on Sunday.
Mild
in freshening west to southwest winds which will become strong in the north.
Possibly exceptionally mild in parts of eastern England and eastern Scotland
with temperatures perhaps reaching 14 or 15 deg C. Rain from a warm front is
likely to spread into western Scotland and northern Ireland later in the day.
On Monday a very deep low will be running to the north of Scotland giving
westerly gales and possibly storm force winds for a time in the northern
Isles.
Scotland and northern Ireland will have rain followed by squally showers. Some
rain further south over England and Wales but southern Britain likely to stay
dry, rather cloudy and mild in moderate west to southwest winds.
Tuesday looks like being another fine day in most places, but possibly rain
spreading into western areas later. Generally mild with winds easing.
Wednesday is the day that significant rain is likely to spread into southern
Britain from yet another Atlantic low. All other areas seeing rain too.
Turning
colder later as winds swing into the northwest bringing showers which will
possibly turn wintry over northern hills.
A fine and cold start to Thursday with more showers in places exposed to the
northwest. Possibly a frost in sheltered southern and eastern parts. However,
more rain is likely to spread back in from the west in strengthening southwest
winds from another deepening Atlantic low. Turning milder again.
On Friday there is a low risk of a major storm crossing the UK. More likely
though, is another ordinary depression followed again by a return to colder
weather on Saturday in north to northwest winds with showers turning wintry on
northern hills.
This then sets the scene, until at least the third week, of a generally
westerly
pattern with spells of mild, wet and windy weather followed by short colder
northerly interludes with wintry showers over high ground. Always a risk as
well
of major storms crossing Britain with the jet stream sinking south with time.
Cheers,
Will
Chief forecaster USW.
--
" Visit Haytor meteorological office at
http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk/Hayt...met_office.htm "
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A COL BH site in East Dartmoor at Haytor, Devon 310m asl (1017 feet).
mailto:
www: http://www.lyneside.demon.co.uk
DISCLAIMER - All views and opinions expressed by myself are personal
and do not necessarily represent those of my employer.
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