On 01/04/2011 06:48, Dawlish wrote:
On Mar 31, 8:54 pm, wrote:
Looking like high pressure may establish itself across the UK again by
T240 and if the charts are to be believed, it could sit over the near
continent and pull up some warm air on it's western flank. I'm
inclined towards believing a high pressure build could occur. I'm
really not sure about where it could locate itself and certainly I.m
not sure about how long it could hang around, if it does. Could be
some pretty nice spring weather in the south in a week's time though.
Similar charts on the 00z gfs and ECM. If you believe the gfs10
days, it will decline and be repplaced by unsettled weather again soon
after 10 days.

The Met Office 15 and 30 day outlooks are starting to "hunt" between
various outcomes. From cool and wet a week or two ago the tune changed
to warm and dry over much of the period with a possible breakdown later
but possibly an early taste of Summer in the south if the block held.
Now they have gone back to a less warm and more unsettled theme for the
latter part of the period.

So I'm not sure that I believe any of them, now. It's starting to look
like one or two occasions last winter - "Whatever they say we shall get
what comes". Shame, really, as the early taste of summer would be nice
fot the start of the cricket season.

It would be nice if Will's forecast in another thread (mostly warm and
dry into at least early Summer) were to verify. It is a long time since
we have had such a summer over much of the UK and after the wet Autumn
and start to Winter there should be ample groundwater reserves.
Possibly not so good in the areas the NIMBYs have refused to allow the
water companies to build adequate reservoirs...

--
- Yokel -

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