On Apr 20, 1:47*pm, Weatherlawyer wrote:
The TSR has revised their forecast down for the Atlantic Hurricane
season.

We will now see what difference the use of statistics for hard data is
in supercomputers and be able to make a comparison with a slightly
improved weatherlore model.

Some old stuff:

Tropical storms do not have to be deep or intense to drop a lot of
rain. It just happens that the good old days when they were first
identified as circular winds, wind power was the be all and end all of
navigation.

Today the main problem with them is still the amount of damage the
wind can do. But in developed countries civilised ones where colonials
have left a legacy that ends up in stripping the ground of its cover,
the rainfall when tropical storms come ashore is more damaging.

Satellites can measure heat, windspeed and sea levels. How much water
they contain is pretty much a mark of the area they cover.

How much water they drop is still a matter for god to determine, at
the moment.
And though Masak isn't (so far) an intense storm, it not only can go
anywhere it can do anything when it gets there.

At the moment we are in the middle of a very wet period. That is those
regions of the earth that tend to get rain are recieving it in
abundance this year. (Drier climes are enjoying extra sunny weather to
make up for it.)

So however much the storm drops, it will be too much. The water table
(the height of water in the ground -how deep you have to dig to find
it) is high. Wells are full, springs are torrents and there is
standing water everywhere. (Odd there haven't been more forest fires
reported.)

When Maysak goes ashore there will be damage on a large scale. The
same is true for Paloma which is heading straight for Cuba. Cuba has
been hit by 2 hurricanes so far this year. I wonder how their economy
is standing up to it.

Last time I looked, Maysac was 120 degrees from Newfoundland and the
Azores.

Now here is the thing, when a sever storm goes ashore it tends to
peter out. All that power disappears. But we know that there is a
conservation of energy factor in there somewhere. A lot of it is tied
up in adiabatics so that part is a closed loop.

But some of it will go into the ground somehow.

And we will have either a pair of earthquakes of some 5.5 M in the
same place consecutively or a larger quake something in the region of
7 M. or higher.

But not necessarily in that region. More likely it will occur some 120
degrees from wherever the storm goes ashore. We'll see. Give it a few
days. It won't occur in Newfoundland a that region sparks storms not
quakes. But the 120 arc runs through Baja at the moment. And that
region might quake.

Not that forecasting a couple of quakes on the west coast of North
America is ground breaking science, to coin a phrase.

But I find it interesting

I think I wrote that in January of the year it refers to, whatever..
The point is since then I settled on 80 *degrees as the separation
required to link storms and quakes. It seemd more in keeping with
planetary waves (search Rossby Waves.)

Then there was this:

It is about 60 degrees from Antofagasta to New York, roughly the same
distance to Unimak Island from Cape Hatteras.

Roughly is good enough, in that the southern reaches of the
Appalachians could be given as Alabama -which is 60 degrees from Hilo,
more or less.

Sixty degrees is something like 1/8 of a day if you are not Esquimaux;
3 hours, 3 time zones; an interesting harmonic.

If you are quick you will see that there is an High stepping off the
shelf at Cape Hatteras. A series of them have run up the coast of the
USA along the Appalachians (2 wide and ?14? long.) These are the
remains of a standing wave that was situated over the mid west for
several days this week.

Appropos of nothing better to do let's have a look at these places:
24thJanuary 2008.
Mag * * Day * * Place

1. M 5.8 EASTERN NEW GUINEA REG, PAPUA NEW GUINEA
2. M 5.2 MOLUCCA SEA
3. M 5.3 SOUTHERN SUMATRA, INDONESIA
4. M 5.8 SOUTH OF PANAMA
5. M 5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION
6. M 5.2 STATE OF YAP, FED. STATES OF MICRONESIA

These places are all pretty close to 60 degrees from:

1. Calcutta; Hilo; Petropavlovsk; Lake Qinghai.
2. Tonga; Midway Island; Petropavlovsk; Karachi; Central NZ.
3. Where the Madagasgar hurricane is; Vanuatu; Hoaria;
4.
5.
6.

This was an attempt to join the dots using information from a book
based on a Lunarist of the late Victorian era and the fact that the
arcs of the Rockies coincide with the weather centres of the North
Atlantic and are some 60 degrees or so.

(I went into more detail about that in my blog but I don't have a
link, sorry. The Blog is on Opera's servers and is called Quirks.)

It turns out I'd made the classic mistake of confusing measurement.
Distances in arc on a sphere do not translate directly as distances in
unit measurements on a flat surface.

So when I was attempting to make a cardboard cut-out to get a quick
look see over the globe, I opened out a pair of dividers to 60
degrees, measured the distance between the points, halved it and drew
a circle with that radius.

You can guess what happened next. But by great good fortune I happened
on the arc that described so much of North America, I kept the cut
outs. I've lost them now, thrown out most likely. But I can gauge the
distance. It is:
62 degrees.

I suppose I could work it all out again but I can't be bothered. It's
near enough. And it doesn't seem to have a great deal of bearing on
the weather with regard to earthquakes.

Except of course it is half way to the middle of the shadow zone.

OOOH!

Let's have another look at that list:

High off the shelf at Cape Hatteras. A series of them have run up the
coast of the USA along the Appalachians (2 degrees? wide and ?14?
long.) These are the remains of a standing wave that was situated over
the mid west for several days this week.

5. M 5.0 IZU ISLANDS, JAPAN REGION

Micronesia also get a hammering when the Aleutians and Japanese arc is
disturbed. But I can't be expected to go running after all these
quakes can I?

I wonder where the Izu Islands are. About 10 degrees south of Honshu I
expect.

Drat. Forgot to crosspost.

And splet the wrod Japanese wrog.

So now a change of harmonic:

I realise now the problem in finding a suitable magnitude of
earthquakes is that they all relate to different areas on the planet.
It has only just occurred to me that there could be more than one
Rossby wave going through a region.

I have always believed that storms are made up of collections of
smaller fronts or waves. It is the exact same physics for wave trains
and super-waves in the sea. And the physics for that has always been
known.

And so it is with quakes -as in fact it is with storm systems on the
other side of the planet showing up with their figerprints all over
the Atlantic chart, the reason for a super quake is that they all come
together at once.

The statistics or laws of statistics/probability all point to that
conclusion too.

Oh boy, I'm too good for this place. even both of them too neither.

Nowall I have to do is traipse down to Exit door and humbly ask
entrance to the MetO library and check it out.
Yes, as if...

But still. All one would have to do is check it out. Lows too as well
as Highs.
I'm not expecting miracles. I know it is far far easier to forecast
earthquakes than to persuade an idiot he is misguided.

And what's mor eif he has friends he'd rather keep and a mortgage he'd
rather pay...
Ah well, twas ever thus.

Or not as the case might just be, one day, before I die I hope.