Weather forecast for our part of the North Atlantic 2011
Including tentative spells for hurricanes in the same ocean.
Here are the phases, taken from the stuff produced by Fred Espenak at
NASA:
2011.
4. Jan. 09:03 T
12. Jan. 11:31 F
19. Jan. 21:21 T
26. Jan. 12:57 W
3. Feb. 02:31
11. Feb. 07:18 W
18. Feb. 08:36
24. Feb. 23:26 F
4. Mar. 20:46 F
12. Mar. 23:45 M
19. Mar. 18:10 M
26. Mar. 12:07 M
3. Apr. 14:32
11. Apr. 12:05 M
18. Apr. 02:44
25. Apr. 02:47 early start? TS.
3. May. 06:51 W possible TS
10. May. 20:33
17. May. 11:09 F Do these or don't they. I forget. Hurricane?
24. May. 18:52 W Hurricane
1. Jun. 21:03 Hurricane
9. Jun. 02:11
15. Jun. 20:13
23. Jun. 11:48 M Hurricane
1. Jul. 08:54 T Hurricane
8. Jul. 06:29 M Hurricane
15. Jul. 06:40 Mw Hurricane
23. Jul. 05:02 F Hurricane?
30. Jul. 18:40 Mw Hurricane
6. Aug. 11:08 F Hurricane?
13. Aug. 18:58 W possible TS or SS
21. Aug. 21:55
29. Aug. 03:04 T Hurricane
4. Sept. 17:39 Fm Hurricane
12. Sept. 09:27 T= Hurricane
20. Sept. 13:39 W- TS
27. Sept. 11:09 F Hurricane
4. Oct. 03:15 T Hurricane
12. Oct. 02:06
20. Oct. 03:30 T= Hurricane though it's late in the season, so maybe a
TS?
26. Oct. 19:56
2. Nov. 16:38 -w TS?
10. Nov. 20:16
18. Nov. 15:09 T TS?
25. Nov. 06:10 M TS?
2. Dec. 09:52 TS
10. Dec. 14:36
18. Dec. 00:48 W TS?
4. Dec. 18:06 M TS
5.
Batten down the hatches boys, it's going to be another record breaker.
*******
A lot of the above spells will be subject to the Greenland High. The
ones to watch out for are the times that fall on or near the half hour
if they are dry spells. And the ones that fall on twenty to or twenty
past the hour are also just a dificult to get right.
(But who wants to do easy jig-saws?)
Allied to theawkward ones above are the hours 2 till 4:30 inclusive. I
think these ones are where the Pacific storms and anticyclones
dominate. I don't know much about these as I don't study their charts
much.
Maybe if I moved to Leeds or Devon or learned to speak Germans, things
would be different. I've always had a yen to go to Canada or nowadays
Russia if I could find a place in Siberia that would give me access to
decent weather records.
The Canadian stuff is excellent but I can't find archives. They'd send
me the data if I had the shekels but god forbid I get a spare penny
for things like that.
I should have done it before the thieves at the banks robbed us all
blind. Serves me right.
http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/ensemble/index_e.html
You can get the link of the SSPs to go back 20 days.
Too much to ask them for the full 9 yards. Still, never mine.
Be that as it may, what matters more than me calling the shots
correctly, is that the phases run in matched sets and cause whatever
natural phenomena accordingly.
I've written T to indicate thunderstorms, M for misty or low overcast
with some chance of slight drizzle.
In the hurricane season, the M spells will have an hurricane or
tropical storm. A lot -as I said, depends on Blocking -especially over
Greenland. I have an idea these blocks form in a relationship to
weather in the North Pacific. That ocean after all, is the supply of
half the storms that eventually cross the North Atlantic.
W is for wet and small letters indicate the spell could go that way,
seeing as the time of the phase concerned is on the above stated
cusps. (20 minutes past and to the relevant hour.) Along that line of
thought, the hyphens and the = sign mean the spell could go
west, .....thataway.
Those spells approaching -or at- W in the season, will probably have
either Super-Cyclones or just Tropical Storms. I am only guessing. But
wouldn't you rather be alerted than not?
2 to 2:30 (and multiples/ factors/ ratios/ highest common whatevers of
said time) tends to produce tornadic events which, in the unblocked
Atlantic, is an High over Greenland with an Azores High displaced to
the east. A Low from North America will travel through these corridors
the day before the tornadic event.
Thus it is evidence of a negative NAO.
These times too in a blocked situation tend to produce tropical storms
in the Indian Ocean. But I am far from certain about that at the
moment.
4 to 4:30 tends to be the remit of volcanic activity on certain
occasions. Blocking Highs perhaps? I don't know. I lost a lot of
confidence after 2006 when nothing I said came out right. It was a few
years before I got back into it with the realisation that the
Greenland High was the lynch-pin.
*******
Points to look for when my code goes wrong -as it will from time to
time:
Tropical storms will show up on the Atlantic SSP.
Different oceans and different basins of the oceans have different
signatures. And I have yet to put my finger on all of that stuff.
When more mainstream weather forecasts go wrong or seem uncertain, it
means that the excess energy in the system is being subverted
subterranically. The reptiles have it.Unless wit-man speak with
forced tongue.
I dare say that now that I have shown the way, better people than I
could take over but it seems to me that science has dug a niche it
doesn't want to change -or is too scared to be seen doing actual
research to do actual research.
(How can you want to preserve the status quo and engage in research?)
So until then, you'll just have to put up with me pottering along from
one insight to the next, when and if I can. It seems terribly simple
to me, no more difficult than doing a jig-saw puzzle. And I get fed up
with it too easily for your own good.
You've been warned.