Hello Dave!
I do check all my forecasts as I do for all other forecasts I can get my hands
on. It's really an eyeball check on specific points in the forecast I'm
interested in. The written forecast you get on the "British Isles Outlook" is
only a small proportion of what is actually done for each day. And as my
intention is to improve the quality of the forecast, it is necessary to check
each part. and see if an improvement is possible so that the 'whole' benefits.
So when I'm checking my forecast, I'm looking for a number of aspects to be
correct which are not evident from the "Outlook" alone.

Taking the "British Isles Outlook" by itself and checking to see what
percentage of success it has, raises the problem of deciding - what can we
accept as correct. A forecast chart of the pressure situation, for example,
can never agree with the exact configurations of the analysis chart. Even the
analysis charts issued by different European centers do not agree entirely, so
where do you draw the line between success and error. Different people have
different opinions.

My forecast charts have always been intended to show a trend or a tendency for a
particular type of weather, and I've always left it to the forecast-user to
decide for himself how far he can trust the charts for his own purpose. I
think I'll leave it that way.

Cheers Dave, Keith

"Dave.C" schrieb:

Keith, out of interest, do you keep a record of how each day turns out in
reality? If so, why not send that in as well. I think all forecasters should
review their forecasts and you and others probably do, but we rarely see
that.

Thanks,

Dave