On Apr 29, 8:35*am, Graham P Davis wrote:
On Thu, 28 Apr 2011 13:00:53 -0700, Dawlish wrote:

.......and how much has forecasting at 10 days improved over the last 30
years?

According to February's Weather, ECMWF forecasts for 500hPa heights
appear to be as accurate at 10 days as they were at 7 days thirty years
ago.

--
Graham Davis, Bracknell, Berks. E-mail: change boy to man
To consider the Earth the only populated world in infinite space is as
absurd as to assert that in an entire field sown with millet only one
grain will grow. - Metrodoros, 300BC

Thanks Graham. Maybe a reason to re-subscribe, as I'd like to see the
article and any stats. you can get the first page he

http://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/1...a.736/abstract

But further than that its subscription time.

In reality, forecasting a week ahead was not accurate 30 years ago and
that's about where we still are 30 years later at 10 days. As Philip
said in his Telegraph blog only last week; forecasting more than even
7 days ahead is often not to be relied on. 30 years ago, it was even
less accurate.