On May 16, 6:20*am, Dawlish wrote:
On May 6, 9:07*pm, Dawlish wrote:





That's enough for me. Agreement and consistency enough to give an 80%
chance of this forecast achieving outcome.

**At T240 on 16/05, the UK weather will be dominated by a slow-moving
low pressure system. Unsettled weather will predominate and the
"drought" will have been well broken in many areas. Indeed, some areas
will be hoping for some drier weather by then. Temperatures will
probably be close to average, but that will depend on the exact
location of the low. It could turn cooler, with a risk of late frosts
in the NE if the low is centred over the North Sea and skies clear for
any time at night, but daytine temperatures will rise quickly in any
sunshine.**

The situation is still blocked, but I see our recent, anticyclonic
pattern shifting eastwards, to leave the UK under much cloudier skies,
with a jet to the south of the UK. No great warmth at 10 days.

**At T240 on 16/05, the UK weather will be dominated by a slow-moving
low pressure system. Unsettled weather will predominate and the
"drought" will have been well broken in many areas. Indeed, some
areas
will be hoping for some drier weather by then. Temperatures will
probably be close to average, but that will depend on the exact
location of the low. It could turn cooler, with a risk of late frosts
in the NE if the low is centred over the North Sea and skies clear
for
any time at night, but daytine temperatures will rise quickly in any
sunshine.**

A great deal of this is correct. Cooler conditions now prevail, there
is unsettled weather for many, the main jet is to the south of the UK
and the drought has been broken for many. It's the "slow moving" low
pressure system which invalidates the forecast. I was expecting more
blocking in the Atlantic, producing the slow moving low pressure over
the UK, but there is actually more mobility than the models were
showing and that I had anticipated from 10 days out, though the
effects of that mobility are being felt further north. This is a break
in the blocked pattern and the FAX charts for today and the next few
days confirm that.

http://euro.wx.propilots.net/

Incorrect 84/105 = 80%- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

I'm sorry, but rather less of your forecast is correct than you care
to admit. For a start, low pressure is no more dominant than high
pressure. If you take England and Wales this morning, pressure is
above 1016mb, and isobars show anticyclonic curvature. Also, the main
jet (Polar Front Jet) is not to the south of the UK, its up near 60N
and is steering the lows just to the north of Scotland. If you are
looking at a jet to the south of the UK its the subtropical jet and
that is always to the south of us. I would also question whether the
drought really has been broken for many. Total rainfall here over the
last 8 days amounts to just 0.1mm, and I am sure there are many other
parts of England, at least, with still well below average rainfall.

Dick Lovett
Charlbury (Oxfordshire Cotswolds)m 122m