On May 28, 10:26*am, "Col" wrote:
Will Hand wrote:

Hi David, yes party on for the north! Might even get a run of days
over 21C up here, that should get the veg. growing, I'm hoping for a
bumper crop at altitude. Putting out the leeks this morning now the
soil is nice and wet.

Good.
On Thursday *I was putting the word out at work that in a weeks'
time the weather would significantly improve.

That's the great thing about watching the models & this group, I
can see major changes in weather type several days before the
general public get told, and I can spread rumours accordingly
--
Col

Bolton, Lancashire
160m asl

*))

This morning, both the gfs and the ECM operationals are showing a mid-
Atlantic block. That's why I haven't forecast over the last 48 hours.
To be considered successful, these 10-day forecasts have to be
accurate and that means getting the synoptic pattern and associated
weather as close as possible at forecast to how it turns out in 10
days. There has not been sufficient agreement, or consistency, to nail
down where that high pressure will be in 10 days time. An anticyclone
will, almost certainly, establish itself close, or over, the UK, re-
introducing blocking conditions at the start of June, but if I'd
forecast the dry and warm conditions that the models were hinting at
yesterday, I'd have been wrong if this morning's cooler and
potentially wetter model output (ECM espacially) achieved outcome. It
could change again, of course, but, to repeat myself, there has been
neither the consistency in the models to forecast with accuracy and
today's output would back that statement.