On Jun 4, 2:07*pm, Adam Lea wrote:
On 04/06/11 11:25, Keith (Southend)G wrote:





On Jun 4, 10:44 am, Adam *wrote:
On 03/06/11 20:19, Will Hand wrote:

Now, about that hot and dry June? :-)

Will
--

Message from the GFS model:

The hot, dry June has been postponed until further notice. This is due
to the wrong type of block in the Atlantic. We apologise for any
inconvenience this may cause.

Looking at the gfs ensemble charts, this weeks showers could be just a
temporary blip bfore the high drifts from the Azores across northern
France, as Will has hinted ~ heatwave stuff in the making !!

Keith (Southend)
http://www.southendweather.net
"Weather Home& *Abroad"

I only looked at the charts out to six days, and they seem to indicate
the dreaded low pressure to the NE bringing persistent cool northerlies
over the UK all next week (i.e. the sort of setup that can bring
November conditions in June).

The Met Office outlook is not encouraging either:

"UK Outlook for Thursday 9 Jun 2011 to Saturday 18 Jun 2011:

The weather remains generally unsettled for most parts of the United
Kingdom with showers and longer periods of rain at times, but also some
drier and brighter spells. Rain is likely to be most persistent towards
the northwest of the UK while the southeast should see the best of any
drier and brighter weather. It will also be windy at first with a chance
of gales on western coasts. Temperatures are likely to be below average
for much of the UK, and there is even a risk of grass frost in prone
rural locations. However, there are some signs of temperatures
recovering to a little above average later in the period, although they
are not expected to reach values similar to those we have seen over
recent days."

However I do admire Will in sticking to his guns in the face of
contradictory forecasts. If his forecast does come off, I will be truly
impressed, although I guess the SE farmers will be hoping he is wrong.- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

Records over time, though Adam. Will has a record of 1 almost wholly
correct forecast (Winter 2009) and then 4 forecasts which have varied
from being pretty reasonable (Summer 2010), to pretty hopeless (Spring
2010, Autumn 2010 and especially Winter 2010). Will then did a MetO
and decided not to issue a forecast for Spring 2011, as his accuracy
had been so poor for the previous 4. He's now started again, but the
outcome for Summer 2011 is 3 months away. Rather than being impressed
by any long-range forecaster, look at their forecast record over time.
If you can find a forecaster, or agency that can demonstrate even
reasonable accuracy, I'd be impressed too and long-range forecasting
in the UK would have taken a big step forward! *))