On 11/06/11 09:00, Gavino wrote:
"Will wrote in message
...
OK I'm conceeding that it is highly likely that I will be totally wrong
about my indications for a hot and dry June

Kudos for admitting failure.
But the real lesson is that anyone who predicts the weather several weeks
ahead is never 'right' or 'wrong', merely 'lucky' or 'unlucky'.

If someone wins the football pools, no-one would think to praise him for
being a great forecaster.
Why should (long-range) weather forecasting be any different?




Because seasonal forecasting is conducted using physical/dynamical
relationships within the atmosphere, not guesswork. It is possible for
some seaonal forecasts to show skill when assessed over many forecasts.