On Jun 11, 11:32*am, Joe Egginton wrote:
On 11/06/2011 09:00, Gavino wrote:

"Will *wrote in message
...
OK I'm conceeding that it is highly likely that I will be totally wrong
about my indications for a hot and dry June

Kudos for admitting failure.
But the real lesson is that anyone who predicts the weather several weeks
ahead is never 'right' or 'wrong', merely 'lucky' or 'unlucky'.

If someone wins the football pools, no-one would think to praise him for
being a great forecaster.
Why should (long-range) weather forecasting be any different?

I think *you denigrate Mr Hand and football pools punters. Mr Hand is a
scientist so should know about short and medium term situations in the
atmosphere. Seasoned football pool punters are experts in probability.

Joe Egginton
Wolverhampton
175m asl

Come on Joe. Gavino didn't denigrate anyone. He pointed out a pretty
harsh lesson, instead. "Mr Hand" even goes against the medium-term
forecasts of his employers. How do you reconcile that? I'm an "expert
in probability" I suppose, as I've done the football pools in the past
and bet on the horses when I was young. I never won anything more than
a few quid and wasted a lot more. Punters are as expert in probability
as the players, or nags, they punt on! The real probability is that
they will lose, whatever system, or bet they place........yet they do
it again the next week and the next, and the next. That's what punters
(i.e. mugs and losers) do. What they are, are experts in calculation.
I've seen older miners who left school at 14, drank much of their
lives away when they weren't at the coal face or asleep, calculate a 4-
horse yankee where 3 horses won, all at variable odds, *in their
heads* much faster than you could do on a calculator**.It was money
for booze that the wife didn't know about and couldn't find out about,
unless they slipped up, so they made sure they could do mental maths
- an old betting slip in the pocket, or a calculation on a beermat
could spell grounding for a week!

Back to the point. Will's summer forecast may yet prove to be correct,
however, his June forecast almost certainly will be hopeless now. The
block has had a plunger applied to it and he didn't see that coming,
even though the models were clearly showing a change early in the
month and have been for a week. He even tried to use a single gfs run
to say that his forecast was on track and that was somthing others
usually do and is naughty. His long-term forecasting record, over the
last 5 forecasts (winter 2009-winter 2010 inc.) since I've watched
more closely, has been as good as anyone else's, granted; but everyone
else's has been pretty hopeless too. Will's no different to others,
because seasonal forecasting, unfortunately and very frustratingly, is
not yet possible with accuracy for the UK.

It's fun to see the forecasts and fun to see the outcomes, but if you
see a seasonal forecast from anyone, just smile knowingly, is the best
way.............and keep a little record of the forecasting success
over time! *))

**Try this: a 4 horse yankee is an accumulator, 4 trebles, and 8
doubles. 13 bets. At £1 per bet, that's a £13 stake (a fair percentage
of a week's wages in 1977). 3 horses come up at 11/4, 5/1 and 1/2.
That's a treble, 11/4 x 5/1 x 1/2; a double at 11/4 x 5/1; a double at
5/1 x 1/2 and a third double at 1/2 x 11/4. The 4th horse comes in
second and you know you've actually missed out on enough for a bloody
family holiday - that's why gamblers can't stop! Anyway, getting over
your disappointment, you've got 5 minutes to sink your pint and get to
the bookies before they close. Could you calculate your winnings so
you can argue the toss with the bookie when he tries to fiddle you,
because you look like a stupid miner who shouldn't have a brain?

I was in my third year at university, back home in my local and I saw
exactly this happen - at those odds. Then and to this day, I can't get
anywhere near mental brilliance of that old man who told me what his
exact winnings would be, then came back in to show me the calculation
on his betting slip. He was perfect to the penny, including his £4
return of stake. I'm doing the calculation now and I think it's about
£43 winnings plus £4 stake back. Imagine if the last horse had won at
the odds of 6-1 that he had!!!

PS He didn't even buy a bloody round for our domino 4 and just got
himself another pint. Tight git.