"Adam Lea" wrote in message
...
On 11/06/11 09:00, Gavino wrote:
But the real lesson is that anyone who predicts the weather several
weeks
ahead is never 'right' or 'wrong', merely 'lucky' or 'unlucky'.

If someone wins the football pools, no-one would think to praise him for
being a great forecaster.
Why should (long-range) weather forecasting be any different?

Because seasonal forecasting is conducted using physical/dynamical
relationships within the atmosphere, not guesswork. It is possible for
some seaonal forecasts to show skill when assessed over many forecasts.

OK, I was stretching the analogy a bit to make the point.
With some specialist knowledge, you can shorten the odds against you, just
as a seasoned stock-market analyst might occasionally come up with a good
tip.

But ultimately the chaotic nature of the underlying dynamics puts a limit on
how far out you can forecast with any degree of confidence.
I have yet to see any evidence that a 'successful' long-range forecast is
down to anything but luck.
Humans have an inbuilt tendency to be "fooled by randomness".
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness